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When Did the Recession Really Start and When Will it End?

When Will the Recession End

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession really started in December 2007.  The NBER based their assesment on monthly statistics, not quarterly.  Jobs peaked in December of 2007 and then have been declining ever since then.   Duration of recessions can change.  The The last expansion lasted 73 months and prior expansion lasted 120 months.  The average expansion since the end of World War II has lasted 57 months. The typical postwar recession has lasted 10 months.  According to financial economic researchers this recession has the possibility of lasting longer.  The good news is that we have been in a recession longer than we have realized.

The committee's definition of a recession is as follows: "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators."

A Second Stimulus Plan

CNBC predicts an equal stimulus for "mainstreet" once the new administration is in place.  This does not mean checks in hand, but funding to government office to keep programs alive such as unemployment, food stamps, medicaid and medicare, bridges and roads.

Will there also be checks going out to the American public?  Possibly.  Even before the election, President-Elect Obama was in favor of emergency energy rebate", $500 to every worker or $1000 for every family, paid for by a tax on the oil companies.  Obamas representatives want the checks to arrive before tax returns are filed in April According to the Economist, the $92 billion in tax rebates which Americans received in July led to a growth in consumer spending of 1.7%.





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Posted on December 01, 2008 13:31:41 by sandra.allen - View Profile
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